In all my years of writing this blog, there is one issue more important than all others that I have yet to cover in any serious detail. That issue is climate change. For decades, the scientific community has been trying to convince the public of one inconvenient truth. That truth is that unless any and all possible steps are taken to alleviate this crisis, human civilization as presently is will simply disappear. Now, I feel it is my time to elaborate in no uncertain terms the direness of the climate crisis, regardless of my usual concerns about the length of the entry. Degree by degree, this will be a general guide for what to expect, and what we have to lose.

To begin this deep dive into our future, we first must look to the past events that sent us down this path. More specifically, we must examine the Industrial Revolution and mass adoption of fossil fuels. Long story short, fossil fuels have been used in some form for thousands of years, but the industrial world we live in now uses them at a ridiculous, unsustainable, and frankly exploitative rate. This is down to the discovery of the technology that allows for drilling oil and gas, as well as for mining coal. The Earth may have vast deposits of these fossil fuels, formed from the remains of deceased organisms. However, due to the geologic timescale, consisting of millions of years, needed to replenish fossil fuel deposits, these resources are non-renewable in terms of human use. 

Regardless, two World Wars and increasingly massive energy needs led to fossil fuels becoming the standard fuel for pretty much every aspect of life. Automobiles mostly run on gasoline, which is a fossil fuel. Even the electric alternatives are derived from fossil fuel-generated power, for the most part. The steam engines that were popular before automobiles took off were also powered by fossil fuels, like coal. And how else did postwar America’s plastic obsession kick off? Deriving the compounds from fossil fuels, of course. This series of events returns us to the present, where plastics and fossil fuels are still dominant industrial sectors, and their influence on our lives is still going strong.

However, there is a significant dark side to fossil fuels, that being what they give off when burned. The most prominent gas that is given off when burning fossil fuels is carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas that can induce a warming trend throughout the Earth. In the 1960s, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was around 320 parts per million (ppm). While already significantly above projected pre-industrial levels, that’s a far cry from where we are at now. In fact, we are nearing a CO2 concentration of 420 ppm in the present day. By the way, those are the numbers atop one of Hawaii’s highest mountains, too, so imagine the possibility of a gas denser than air (like CO2 is) concentrating even more greatly in sea-level cities. Perhaps that explains the discrepancy between expectations in climate models and the reality on the ground, but I digress.

The more important point is that CO2 levels in the atmosphere and oceans alike are indeed increasing. Therefore, I feel it is helpful to explain the effects and implications of such an increase. We all know about the exceptional droughts in the American West and the even more exceptional monsoon floods in Pakistan, but those are not the only kinds of disasters that await. These disasters are also ecological, too. Coral bleaching is a perfect example of this, as corals have been increasingly vulnerable around the globe. You see, even seemingly slight increases in temperature and acidity disturb the conditions that corals are extremely adapted to. Coral reefs also house an unfathomable amount of marine biodiversity, and their disappearance would crash many species’ populations. Essentially, this would result in the collapse of the whole ecosystem.

On land, similar situations exist in the form of desertification in Africa and the American West. This is when precipitation levels drop to the point where an ecosystem, often already somewhat arid, crosses the ecological threshold of becoming a desert. Deserts are famous for their lack of water, and a significant portion of Earth’s human population is at risk from this. Just look at the lawn restrictions in Las Vegas for proof of how precious water is for people in those areas. And this level of catastrophe is already occurring, even though the world has only warmed by 1 degree Celsius so far. That’s 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, by the way. However, the impacts will only worsen as the world continues to warm.

1.5 degrees Celsius is the current goal as to what to keep the warming trend lower than. That’s because it’s seen as a sort of tipping point beyond which the impacts of climate change become a true catastrophe. Of course, we’re already in this crisis right now, but that temperature threshold, if reached, would likely lead to coral reefs disappearing and billions of people experiencing deadly heat waves. When that’s the baseline as to what to expect, a situation can certainly be called extremely dire. Sea level rise would start flooding major cities at this point, too, thus wrecking our urbanized global economy. These events would be disastrous, but it may in fact still get much worse.

The 2 degree warming mark is where things start crossing into cataclysm, with yields of wheat and corn decreasing significantly at this point. Given that these foods are staple grains of many modern populations, that could lead to significant increases in food insecurity. Also, the Vox article I’m citing here is from 2018, and they pointed out that it was projected then that only four years worth of CO2 emissions would separate us from 1.5 degree warming. It’s been four years since then, which has me wondering if 2 degrees of warming is now simply the best we can hope for. If that’s the case, we could be seeing major coastal cities completely underwater by the century’s end. In America, that would be New Orleans and the coasts of Florida, with Washington DC and Houston also starting to flood more frequently. Even Boston may start flooding more at this time. That would displace millions of Americans from their homes in what would truly be the most dramatic stage of the crisis yet. However, humanity and the world could be in for even harder times.

As three degrees Celsius of warming approaches, the Amazon rainforest will be in major trouble. It will largely turn into a savanna, wiping out almost all of the massive biodiversity within it. This would be the first major ecological collapse in what could potentially become a sixth mass extinction, an event that will only get worse as the temperature rises ever higher. A rise by this much by the end of the century would be brutal for many species, even the ones who can move towards the still-warming climates at the poles, which by now would be without much ice at all. However, for species that can’t escape the heat quickly enough, they may be doomed to extinction. On top of that, the human impact at this point would be simply astounding. We’re talking hundreds of millions displaced or facing extreme weather that would be nearly unsurvivable. Still, wealthier humans would find a way to escape the worst effects of climate change, but even their relative safety would be limited compared to today’s levels of security. Mass civil unrest is therefore highly likely by this point, if not sooner. Many island nations in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans all will disappear beneath the waves by this point, displacing many millions. In short, this would be about as severe as the fall of Ancient Rome, but on a global scale. Long story short, global society would basically collapse at this point, being unable to handle such a massive paradigm shift this quickly.

Making matters worse is that this is where we are headed as a planet according to present emissions projections. In fact, things might become even worse without swift and decisive action. The only good news I have at this point is that not every projection goes higher than three degrees Celsius. However, most of them do, and if current trends are maintained, we may approach four degrees Celsius of warming, and this is where things go from heavy cataclysm and transition into apocalyptic conditions. Droughts also spread to more and more areas, expanding deserts’ reach on Earth. Food insecurity grows more dire and more cities flood. By this point, London, NYC, and a lot of coastal Asian cities will be submerged, adding yet more hundreds of millions of displaced people. This series of events would be worse than even the mysterious and post-apocalyptic era of civilization in the Mediterranean and Middle East known as the Bronze Age Collapse. Before then, many of Earth’s civilizations were in that specific area of the globe, and that area was in a state of complete collapse beginning around 1250 BC. Over the next century, a combination of domestic strife, foreign invaders, and collapsing trade systems led to the end of all but one Bronze Age civilization. Mycanaean Greece, the Hittites, and many smaller powers all disappeared, with the survivors taking centuries to recover. Entire systems of writing were lost to the sands of time, and some civilizations were left unknown to the survivors for thousands of years. The one surviving civilization that was even remotely intact was Ancient Egypt, but even its glory days were pretty much over after the Bronze Age Collapse. They may have lingered on until the death of Cleopatra and concurrent rise of Rome, but until then, they took a backseat to Persia and Ancient Greece. The long and short of what needs to be said here is that humans and life as a whole will find a way to eke out an existence, even at this brutal stage. However, the world we know will be forever gone if this comes to pass, and Earth’s state of affairs can still somehow get even more unlivable. And it’s not like every species will survive this, and in fact, most won’t. But that’s a story for the next entry…