In this world, most people live by some sort of scripture, and I am no different. However, mine consists of four mere words: F*** around, find out. Those four words accurately and succinctly explain my opinion on many things, one of them being former President Trump. He has been in the news yet again recently, and for once, it is not exactly for the stupid shenanigans he’s dragged through since he started his political career. Well, not directly anyway.

This time, state courts in Colorado and Maine have taken steps to remove Trump from the ballots in those states citing a section of the 14th Amendment. More specifically, Section 3 of this Amendment states that if a candidate for any political office engages in insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or otherwise aids these acts. In short, the legal debate here is if Trump’s actions during and in the wake of the events at Capitol building on January 6, 2021 rise up to the level of promoting or engaging in insurrection. If his actions are found to fall under this description, then he may well be barred from running for President ever again, let alone winning the White House back. But if the opposite is found to be the case, he could very well eke out another term in the Oval Office.

This is relevant because the Supreme Court has now decided to hear this case, which is admittedly appropriate for any case of this magnitude. After all, any decision the Supreme Court makes could either give the bare minimum of reliable accountability to the office of the President, or it could give whoever holds the office a permission slip to be practically above the law. And given the recent track of the Supreme Court being one of borderline ineptitude, my faith in them delivering any reasonable decision either way is low at best. For one thing, this era of the Court has been defined by a stark shift in their decisions towards favoring more conservative policy goals, such as allowing states to ban abortion. On top of that, with a 6-3 majority of Justices who align more to the ideological right, there is a decent possibility that Trump just gets let off the hook.

Needless to say, the only guaranteed consequence of such a decision would be chaos. Therefore, I will speculate some scenarios as to what that chaos would look like. Mercifully, none of them will involve civil war, though that will probably be a blockbuster movie next year. However, that’s not to say that such a decision would lend itself well to an orderly electoral cycle. The first scenario is the least chaotic, one in which President Biden’s messaging framing Trump as anti-democratic could pick up further steam, leading to a possible Biden victory. That, in turn, would probably amount to kicking the can down the road another four years, with at least a chance for democratic reforms to be implemented. However, if Trump does stay on the ballot, most other endings are a bit fuzzier.

For one thing, a lot of Democrats and moderates have sounded the alarm on Trump having ambitions akin to that of a dictator. While I will say that is likely the case, in my opinion, it is worth mentioning that a lot of people, both supporters and detractors, have been very wrong about Trump for a very long time. He’s probably not a devoted fascist ideologue, but merely incredibly prone to promoting such appalling political goals due to his malignant narcissism. Needless to say, that doesn’t make him good by any means, and definitely shows many similarities to Cartman from South Park. He still shouldn’t be running much of anything, let alone a massively powerful country like the USA.

Therefore, predicting what happens after a Trump victory in this scenario is not particularly easy, but I have an idea. I honestly think it will be relatively similar to his first term. By that I mean it will be maddening, but there will likely be quite a few non-MAGA Republicans in the party, and hopefully enough opposition from everyone else to keep the worst of Trump well out to sea. Now, I should definitely say that is not guaranteed if Trump wins, especially in the case of non-MAGA Republicans. However, I don’t see our institutions being so weak they crumble to the whims of the village idiot. We all should have more hope than that, because hope is the bare minimum to keep a democracy alive.